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The Danger of the Carry Trade

It's noticeable that more and more people in Forex are talking about the so-called Carry Trade or Cary Trade strategy - some know nothing about it, some advice them to use it... I've commented on the matter elsewhere but think it's worth a separate post, thus I do it:
The Carry Trade (Strategy) was very profitable prior to the Financial crisis - I could buy a small new car only on swaps every year from a 20K deposit! Since around 2008/9 it's being squeezed out as the interest rates are gradually reduced globally - this is due to the global economy is cooling down. This alone hit the most all the Currency Hedge Funds... My records show that for example Oanda's combined for all the currencies positive swap dropped 2.5 times in the last three month!!! For you as a novice fx trader the main danger of this carry strategy is that countries with high interest rates will inevitably cut their interest rate rather sooner than later. Thus, for example, if you sell USD/TRY to capitalize on an attractive positive swap it may soon mean for you that you are left with a huge minus generated by your sell-positions and a tiny plus swap (in relation to the minus). And you can't close those sell-positions with profit for god know how long - and imagine some economic turmoil during that time with volatility shooting up 10 times, or a flash crash etc... Buy the way Turkey cut its interest rate in September and brokers cut their positive swaps 2 times in response (!)... Nowadays the Carry Trade has lost its shine for most pro traders as there are other strategies generating superior returns, but for a novice it is useful to learn about it.
P.S. Those currency pairs with the better positive swap are the most volatile.
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Tutorial 1 - MetaTrader 4 Tips and Tricks - YouTube

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